Matchday 1 (16–17 September 2025)

The Champions League returns, and our data-driven system has crunched the numbers across 100+ performance and psychology signals to bring you the best value picks for this week’s fixtures. Here’s how we see it playing out.

(All odds are taken from leading bookmakers. For the best prices, we recommend comparing across apps like Bet365, SkyBet, Paddy Power, and William Hill.)

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Tuesday, 16 September

Athletic Club vs Arsenal
Arsenal look well-placed to control this one, with a strong set-piece advantage and recent away form backing them.

• Best Bet: Arsenal win (around 4/6)
• Outside Shout: Arsenal 2–0 (around 15/2)

PSV vs Union Saint-Gilloise
PSV’s attacking metrics at home are excellent, while Union’s defensive record away shows cracks.

• Best Bet: PSV win & Over 1.5 goals (around 5/6)
• Outside Shout: PSV 3–1 (around 10/1)

Juventus vs Borussia Dortmund
Both sides trend towards open games recently, with defensive frailties on show.

• Best Bet: BTTS & Over 2.5 goals (around 5/4)
• Outside Shout: Juventus to win by 1 goal (around 11/2)

Real Madrid vs Marseille
Madrid’s attacking strength and Marseille’s limited away creation points to a one-sided affair.

• Best Bet: Real win to nil (around 3/5)
• Outside Shout: Mbappé 2+ goals (around 7/1)

Benfica vs Qarabağ
Benfica’s pressing and set-piece strength should overwhelm Qarabağ at home.

• Best Bet: Benfica -1 Asian handicap (around 4/5)
• Outside Shout: Benfica win to nil & Over 1.5 (around 3/1)

Tottenham vs Villarreal
Spurs under Thomas Frank are disciplined and efficient, while Villarreal have struggled defensively away.

• Best Bet: Spurs win (around Evens)
• Outside Shout: Spurs 2–0 (around 7/1)

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Wednesday, 17 September

Olympiacos vs Pafos
Olympiacos have too much quality, especially on set pieces.

• Best Bet: Olympiacos win (around 4/6)
• Outside Shout: Olympiacos 3–0 (around 9/1)

Slavia Prague vs Bodø/Glimt
Slavia’s defensive organisation makes this a tough trip for Bodø.

• Best Bet: Slavia win & BTTS No (around 6/5)
• Outside Shout: Slavia clean sheet (around 7/1)

Ajax vs Inter
Inter’s defensive structure and attacking depth should give them the edge, though Ajax can still make it wild if they chase the game.

• Best Bet: Inter Draw No Bet (around 4/5)
• Outside Shout: Over 3.5 goals (around 11/2)

Bayern vs Chelsea
Bayern’s home dominance and attacking firepower should be too much for Chelsea.

• Best Bet: Bayern win & Over 2.5 goals (around 4/5)
• Outside Shout: Bayern -1 handicap (around 2/1) or Bayern 3–1 (around 12/1)

Liverpool vs Atlético Madrid
Liverpool under Slot look sharp but measured, while Atleti remain compact and low-event away.

• Best Bet: Liverpool win & Under 3.5 goals (around 6/5)
• Outside Shout: Liverpool 2–0 (around 8/1)

PSG vs Atalanta
PSG’s attacking stars should exploit Atalanta’s open style.

• Best Bet: PSG win (around 4/5)
• Outside Shout: Over 4.5 goals (around 6/1)