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Gameweek 4

📊 GW4 Predictions Debrief

Gameweek 4 is wrapped up, and it turned into a really solid week for us. We nailed most of the main calls, landed a couple of juicy outside shouts, and only got caught out in a few places where the games took an unexpected turn.

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Fixture by Fixture

• Arsenal 3–0 Forest – We called Arsenal to win and keep it tidy under 3.5 goals at 7/4, and that’s exactly how it played out. The outside shot of a 2–0 win at 7/1 wasn’t far off either.
• Bournemouth 2–1 Brighton – Spot on here too. The main bet of Over 2.5 and BTTS at 5/6 landed, and the outside shout of Bournemouth to score 2+ at 3/1 also hit. Semenyo looks a handful every week.
• Palace 0–0 Sunderland – This was the first miss. We backed Palace to edge it, but Sunderland’s low block kept them quiet. If you played the unders angle you’d have been fine, but the win bets didn’t come through.
• Everton 0–0 Villa – Perfect read. Under 2.5 goals at 8/11 landed, and the outside shout of 0–0 at 8/1 came in beautifully. A classic Everton-Villa stalemate.
• Fulham 1–0 Leeds – Expected both teams to score, but Leeds didn’t have enough. The outside shot of Leeds to win from behind was never on either.
• Newcastle 1–0 Wolves – Another double win. Newcastle to win at 4/6 was comfortable enough, and the exact 1–0 scoreline at 13/2 came in as well. Textbook stuff.
• Spurs 3–0 West Ham – Spurs Draw No Bet at 4/5 landed easily, though Bowen as first goalscorer at 9/2 didn’t come close. Thomas Frank’s Spurs look very efficient.
• Brentford 2–2 Chelsea – The Chelsea win didn’t land, and neither did the outside shout of Chelsea + BTTS. Both teams scoring was the right angle though, so we weren’t miles off.
• Liverpool 1–0 Burnley – Another main bet winner. Liverpool to win and Under 3.5 at 6/5 was right on the money, even if the outside shot of 2–1 missed. Salah’s penalty sealed it.
• City 3–0 United – Straightforward. City to win at 8/11 was the banker, and they delivered. The half-time BTTS longshot never really looked likely with United’s lack of bite.

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🔑 Key Takeaways

• 8 out of 10 correct outcomes and 6 of the side markets landed.
• Everton-Villa (0–0) and Newcastle-Wolves (1–0) were the highlight — both outside shouts hitting at big odds.
• Arsenal and City were as clean as expected, while Palace and Chelsea are sides we’ll be cautious with moving forward.

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🎯 Performance Recap

• Best Bets (main picks): 8/10 (80%)
• Outside Shouts (2/1+): 3/10 (30%) — including 8/1 (Everton 0–0) and 13/2 (Newcastle 1–0).

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🏆 Best Calls of GW4

• Everton vs Villa: Double winner with Under 2.5 + exact 0–0 (8/1).
• Newcastle vs Wolves: Double winner with outright + exact 1–0 (13/2).
• Liverpool vs Burnley: Main bet of Liverpool & unders at plus money.

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👀 What’s Next

We move on quickly to the Champions League fixtures on Tuesday 16th and Wednesday 17th September. I’ll break them down tomorrow morning in the same format: Best Bet + Outside Shout (2/1+) for every game.

If you’ve been following along, you’ll know why I’m excited about where this system is heading.